【连载】CB Predictor操作手册(Crystal Ball Predictor 水晶球预测)

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Selecting time-series forecasting methods选择时间预测方法

You can forecast historical data using many different time-series forecasting methods. Some methods are designed to work best for certain types of data:
•Seasonal data (increasing or decreasing in a regularly recurring pattern over time)
可以用不同时间序列的预测方法来对历史数据进行预测。有些方法对不同类型的数据有特定要求。
     周期数据（增加或减少在一段时间内按一定的规律变动）

•Trend data (consistently increasing or decreasing over time)
数据趋势（在一段时间内按一定的规律增加或减少）

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For time-series forecasting, any of the time-series forecasting methods should work with different amounts of success. However, each method has its own “specialty,” as described in the following table
对于时间序列预测，不同的时间序列预测方法有不同的特点，具体看下表：

Table 3.1 Choosing a forecasting method选择预测方法

No trend or seasonality没有周期趋势	Trend only单一趋势	Seasonality only周期性趋势	Both trend and seasonality周期性单一趋势
Single Exponential Smoothing单边指数平滑	Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing霍尔特指数平滑	Seasonal Additive 周期递增	Holt-Winters’ Additive Holt-Winters’递增
Single Moving Average单边移动平均	Double Moving Average双边移动平均	Seasonal Multiplicative 多元周期性	Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative多元Holt-Winters

In addition to this breakdown, there are two types of seasonal methods: additive and multiplicative. Additive seasonality has a steady pattern amplitude, and multiplicative seasonality has the pattern amplitude increasing or decreasing over time.
除此之外还有两种周期性方法：加法和乘法。加法周期有一定的振动幅度，乘法周期在一段时间内有增加或者减少的振动幅度。


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You can use a scatter plot of your data (using either Excel or the View Data button on the Input Data tab) to decide whether you have trend or seasonal data. This can help you decide which methods will work best when forecasting the data. However, selecting all the time-series forecasting methods does not significantly slow down the calculations unless you are forecasting thousands of values at once, so you might as well try them all.
你可以对数据用散点图的方法（使用excel或者查看数据按钮）来确定数据是有一定的趋势或者周期性。这也可以帮助我们在预测数据的时候选择最好的方法。否则，选择所有时间序列的预测方法等到结果可能不能确切的说明问题，除非你一次性对上千个变量进行预测，并且每个都进行尝试。

To select the forecasting methods to use: 选择预测方法：

1.        In the Data Attributes tab, click Next.
     1、在数据属性表中，点击下一步
The Method Gallery tab appears as shown in Figure 3.7. 如图3.7，方法类别会显示出来

For a description of the Method Gallery tab settings, see “Method Gallery tab”
对方法类别图表的选择，可以查看“方法类别选项”

2.In the Method Gallery tab, either:
•Try all the methods by clicking on Select All.
2、在方法集合表中
尝试所有的方法点击选择所有（select all）

•Try only some methods by clicking on Clear All and then clicking in the checkbox for each method you want to try.
只使用一种方法则清除所有，在图表中选择想要使用的方法

3.To manually set the parameters for any method, overriding the automatic calculation of parameters:
3、对各种方法手工设置参数，或者计算所有参数。

a. Double-click in the method area.
The method’s parameter dialog appears, similar to Figure A.8 on page 111.CB Predictor User Manual 69
  A、在方法列表中双击
显示出方法参数的对话框，

b. Select the User Defined setting.
The parameter fields become active. You can reset the method to automatically optimize the parameters at any time by selecting the Automatic setting.
      B、选择使用定义设置
参数变得有效率，你可以对参数进行设置，使其在任何时候选择自动优化来优化参数设置。

c. Enter the parameter values in the parameter fields.
For more information on these parameters, see “Seasonal smoothing parameters” on page 41.
         C、在参数表格中输入参数

d. Click OK.
The parameters dialog closes.
      D、点击ok
CB Predictor Note: The user-defined settings remain until you reset them. A double asterisk next to the method in the Method Gallery indicates that the method is set to use user-defined parameters.
CB Predictor注意：保持用户自定义的设置，直到您重置它们。两个星号旁边的方法表明，该方法可以自定义设置参数。

4.Set advanced settings.
For more information on setting advanced settings, see “Selecting error measures” below and “Selecting forecasting techniques” on page 70.
   4、进行高级设置
高级设置的更多的信息，查看“选择错误度量”和“选择预测技术”

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Selecting error measures选择误差度量

CB Predictor uses one of three error measures to determine which time-series forecasting method works best:
CB Predictor使用一个或三个偏差度量来决定那个时间序列方法更有效。

RMSE        Root Mean Squared Error 平均方根偏差
MAD         Mean Absolute Deviation 平均绝对偏差
MAPE        Mean Absolute Percentage Error 平均绝对百分比偏差

When determining the best method, CB Predictor calculates the selected error measure when fitting each method to the historical data. The method with the lowest error measure is considered best, and the rest of the methods are ranked accordingly. For more information on these error measures, see “Time-series forecasting error measures” on page 42. By default, CB Predictor uses RMSE to select the best method.
当决定了最佳的方法以后，CB Predictor会对历史数据用最适合的方法来计算误差度量。这个方法将得到最佳的最低误差，并会对其他方法进行排序。一般情况，CB Predictor选择RMSE来选择最佳的方法。

To change which error measure CB Predictor uses: 用CB Predictor对误差进行度量：

1.In the Method Gallery, click Advanced.
The Advanced Options dialog appears, similar to Figure A.9 on page 113.
1、        在方法列表中，选择高级
高级选项对话框会显示出来。

2.        Select the error measure you want CB Predictor to use to determine the best method. For more information on the Advanced Options dialog, see “Advanced Options dialog” on page 113.
2、 选择误差度量，用CB Predictor来决定最佳的方法。

3.Click OK.
The Method Gallery reappears.
3、点击ok

Selecting forecasting techniques选择预测技术

CB Predictor uses one of four forecasting techniques for time-series forecasting as shown in the following table:
CB Predictor使用4种时间序列中的一种预测方法，如下表：
Table 3.2 Choosing a forecasting technique选择一种计算误差的方法

Technique 技术	Optimizes the forecasting parameters to minimize the error measure using the technique: 预测参数优化，以减少误差
Standard Forecasting 标准预测	Error measure between the fit values and the historical data for the same period. 对同一时期的隶属数据和移动值计算误差
Simple Lead 简单预测	Error measure between the historical data and the fit offset by a specified number of periods (lead). 对一个特定时期的隶属数据和移动值计算误差
Weighted Lead 加权预测	Average error measure between the historical data and the fit offset by 0, 1, 2, etc. periods, up to the specified number of periods (weighted lead). 平均之间的对历史数据和0，1，2等时期计算平均值，使其相互抵消，直至计算出特定时期误差值（加权）。
Holdout Holdout预测	Error measure between a set of excluded data and the forecasting values. CB Predictor does not use the excluded data to calculate the forecasting parameters. 在去除的数据和预测值之间计算误差值，CB Predictor不会使用排除的数据来计算预测参数。

By default, CB Predictor uses standard forecasting to select the best method.

To change which forecasting technique CB Predictor uses:

一般情况下，CB Predictor使用标准预测作为最佳的预测方法。

1.In the Method Gallery, click Advanced.

The Advanced Options dialog appears, similar to Figure A.9 on page 113.

1、在方法列表中，选择高级

2.Select the forecasting technique you want CB Predictor to use for time-series forecasting.

For more information on the Advanced Options dialog, see “Advanced Options dialog” on page 113.

2、选择时间序列预测方法

3.If you selected Simple Lead, Weighted Lead, or Holdout, enter the appropriate lead or holdout in the field by the setting.

3、如果选择简单、加权或者holdout方法，输入合适的方法

4.Click OK.

The Method Gallery reappears.

4、点击ok

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Entering the number of periods to forecast输入预测的周期数

After CB Predictor finds the method that best fits the historical data, it is ready to use that same method to forecast future values. You need to decide how many time periods you want to forecast.
用CB Predictor找到最适合历史数据的统计方法后，可以用同样的方法预测未来的数据。你需要确定你想要预测多长周期的数据。

As you are trying to decide, there are a few points to keep in mind:
用CB Predictor找到最适合历史数据的预测方法后，


•The first few values are fairly reliable. Only forecast as many values as you need.
开始的值是非常可靠的，根据需要预测更多的值。

•The farther out you try to forecast, the less reliable the forecasted values are. The confidence interval of any forecast grows to reflect this decrease in reliability.
如果需要预测更多的数据，预测值就更不稳定。预测的置信区间反映减少趋势的稳定性。

•The maximum number of time periods possible is 100.
时间周期的最大值是100

To enter the number of periods to forecast: 输入预测的周期数：

1.In the Method Gallery, click Next.
The Results tab appears as shown in Figure A.10 on page 115.
  1、在方法图表中，点击下一步

2.Under Step 7, enter the number of periods you want to forecast.
For details, see “Results tab” beginning on page 115.
  2、在第七步，输入需要预测的周期数

Selecting a confidence interval选择置信区间

The confidence interval defines the range above and below a forecasted value where the value has some probability of occurring. For example, a confidence interval of 10% and 90% gives two points for each forecasted value. The lower point represents the 10th percentile. The higher point represents the 90th percentile. The farther out the forecast is, the larger this range is.
置信区间是定义每个预测值可能发生的上限和下限的范围。例如，如果对每个预测值给出置信区间是10%和90%两个值。下限是10%，上限是90%。

To set a confidence interval, under Step 8 on the Results tab, select the confidence interval you want to calculate and display with your results. For details, see “Results tab”
根据第八步设置置信区间，选择需要计算的置信区间，并得出结果。如果需要了解更详细的信息，查看“结果列表”。


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Select your results选择结果

After you identify your historical data, select the methods to try, and decide how many time periods you want to forecast, you must decide which results you want to create. CB Predictor can:
确认历史数据之后，选择预测的方法，并决定需要预测多少周期的数据，并且决定需要生成怎样的预测报告。CB Predictor可以生成以下几种报告：

•Paste the forecasted data anywhere on your worksheet or into a new worksheet
     在工作表或者新的sheet表中粘贴预测结果

•Create a chart that can show historical data, fitted values, and forecasted data and its confidence interval
生成一个历史数据的图表，图表中会显示历史数据的最佳值、预测值和置信区间

•Generate a report summarizing the findings
生成一份总结结果的报告

•Create a PivotTable of all the historical data, fitted values, forecasted data, and confidence intervals
生成包含所有历史数据的数据表，图表中包含了历史数据的最佳值、预测值和置信区间。

•Create a PivotTable of some or all the method information for each forecast, including the errors, parameters, and statistics for each method tried
生成一份对每次预测的所有或者部分的预测方法的信息，包括每种预测方法的误差、参数和统计方法。

You can choose to generate only basic results, such as pasted data and charts, until you are sure you have the forecasts you want. Then you can create customized, detailed reports and tables to present to others.
可以选择只生成基础的结果，比如粘贴数据和图表，以及其他需要的预测结果。也可以定制有特定结果和图表的报告。

To generate the results you want: 获得你需要的结果：

1.Under Step 9 on the Results tab (page 115), to paste forecasted values:
a. Select the Paste Forecasts setting.
Enter the cell reference of the starting location in the field to the right. The default starting location pastes the forecasted values immediately at the end of your historical data.
b. To paste the data somewhere other than the end of the data, enter the cell where you want the pasted data to start or click Select to select a different cell interactively.
c. Select to paste the forecasted values in rows or columns.
   1、按照第九步，粘贴预测结果
   A、选择粘贴结果设置
   在图表的右边输入粘贴结果的单元格位置，默认情况是在历史数据的后面粘贴预测结果。
   B、在数据的结尾粘贴预测结果，或者选择要粘贴的单元格的范围
   C、选择预测结果以行或者列的形式粘贴

2.Select the other types of output you want by clicking on the appropriate checkboxes.
2、在列表中选择想要输出的结果类型

3.To customize the output types:
a. Click Preferences.
The Preferences dialog appears as shown on page 117.
b. Click the tab of the result you want to customize.
c. Change the settings.
For more information on these settings, see “Preferences dialog” on page 117.
d. Repeat steps b and c for any other result you want to customize.
e. Click OK.
The Results tab of the wizard reappears.
   3、定制输出的类型：
  A、选择偏好
  B、点击需要定制的结果
  C、修改设置
  D、对其他预测也重复操作
  E、点击ok   

4.Enter a title in the Title field to identify your output.
This title appears on all the result sheets that CB Predictor creates. The default title is the worksheet name.
   4、输入预测结果的标题
   这个标题会显示在所有的预测结果上，一般默认的标题是sheet表的名称。

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Previewing and running the forecast预览并运行结果

CB Predictor actually calculates the forecasts for each data series when you select either Preview or Run. The difference is that Preview lets you view the forecasts and make changes before it generates any of the results. Run simply generates the results.
当选择运行预测结果时，CB Predictor会对每组数据的预测结果进行计算，不同的是预览会在得出结果之前让你查看预测的情况并作出改变，而运行只是简单的得到结果而已。

1.To preview the forecast before generating the selected results, click Preview.
The Preview dialog appears. For more information, see “Preview Forecast dialog”
1、在结果生成之前要进行预览，点击预览

2.To run the forecast and produce the selected results, click Run.
2、要得到最后的预测结果，点击运行

CB Predictor Note: You can click Preview or Run from any of the wizard tabs at any time, as long as the data have been properly defined in the Input Data tab.
CB Predictor注意：在数据输入端过程中，你可以随时运行和预览就结果。

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明天说分析结果～！
已经到手册的2/3了，快结束了哦{:8_306:}

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Analyzing the results分析结果

CB Predictor simplifies the actual forecasting process, but you still must understand the results it gives you.

CB Predictor对预测的过程进行了简化，但是你仍然需要了解其得到的结果。

Pasted forecasts粘贴结果

Two settings in the Results tab affect pasted data: the Paste Forecasts setting and the number of periods to forecast. If you selected Paste Forecasts, when you click Run, CB Predictor pastes the number of forecasted values at the end of your historical data or somewhere else if you specify another location. The worksheet automatically scrolls to where the pasted data begin.

The forecasted values can appear in bold or italics, depending on the selected settings in the Paste Preferences dialog.

粘贴数据可以在结果表的两个地方进行设置：粘贴预测设置和预测周期数。如果在运行结果的时候选择的是粘贴预测结果，CB Predictor将在历史数据的后面或者你选择的其他的位置粘贴预测数据。工作表会自动定位到粘贴数据的开始位置。

预测值可以显示为粗体或者斜体，这可以在粘贴图表属性中进行设置。

Even through CB Predictor tried all the methods you selected in the Method Gallery, it generates the pasted values using the best method, unless you overrode the best method. In that case, the program generates the pasted values using the overriding method.

CB Predictor可以根据你在方法图表中的选择尝试所有的预测方法，即使你没有选择最佳的方法，它也会用最佳的方式粘贴数值。一般默认的情况是使用覆盖的方式进行粘贴。

Statistical Note: Of the eight time-series forecasting methods, two result in flat lines: single moving average and single exponential smoothing. The forecasted values for these are all the same. This isn’t an error. It is the best possible forecast for volatile or patternless data.

注意：在八种预测方法中，有两种的结果是直线：单边移动平均和单边指数平滑。这两种的方法得到的结果是一样的，这并不是运算错误，而且因为这是波动数据和平稳数据最可能出现的情况。

When you paste regression results, the independent variable forecast values are pasted as simple value cells. The dependent variable forecasted values are created as formula cells with the regression equation as the formula. The regression equation coefficients appear below the pasted values.

当你粘贴回归结果的时候，粘贴的因变量的预测值只是个简单的数值，自变量的预测值是回归方程中得到的方程公式。回归方程的系数显示在粘贴值的下面。

If you did not generate any charts with your results, you can create an Excel chart by selecting the forecasted values （ along with some historical data) and using Excel’s Chart wizard.

如果没有生成任何的图表结果，你可以通过选择预测值和excel图表工具来制作excel图表。

Charts图表

Three settings in the Results tab affect charts:
在图表中三种设定结果：

Number Of Periods To Forecast 预测的周期数	Sets how many forecasted values appear on the chart. 设定在报告中显示多少预测点
Confidence Interval 置信区间	Sets which confidence interval to calculate. If you select None, you cannot display a confidence interval on your charts. 设定预测结果的计算置信区间，如果你没有选择，在预测结果图表中设定置信区间
Chart 图表	Selects whether to generate charts. 选择是否给出图表

If you select Chart and click Run, CB Predictor generates Excel charts for each series with the number of forecasted values. The charts appear either on a different worksheet of the current workbook or on a different workbook, depending on the selected settings in the Chart Preferences dialog. The data used to generate the charts appears to the right of the charts.

如果选择了得到图表，CB Predictor会生成关于每列预测数据的excel图表。图表会在另外的sheet表或者新的excel工作表中生成，这可以在图表属性对话框中进行选择。数据一般会在图表的右边生成。

Even though CB Predictor tries all the methods you selected in the Method Gallery, it generates the chart values using the best method, unless you overrode the best method. In that case, the program generates the chart values using the overriding method.

CB Predictor可以根据你在方法图表中的选择尝试所有的预测方法，但是一般情况它会选择最佳的方法，除非你不选择这个方法。一般情况，系统默认的是使用覆盖的方法得到预测值。

On the chart, the green line represents your historical data, the blue lines represent both the fitted and forecasted values, and the red lines above and below the forecasted values represent the upper and lower confidence interval. There is a gap between where the historical and fitted values end and the forecasted values begin to delineate the past and future values.

在图表中，绿色的线条代表历史数据，蓝色的线条代表最佳值和预测值，预测值上下的红色线条代表置信区间的上下限。在历史数据和最佳值的最后和预测值之间有间隔，以此来区分历史和预测的数值。

Statistical Note: Of the eight time-series forecasting methods, four result in straight lines: single moving average, single exponential smoothing, double moving average, and Holt’s double exponential smoothing. Only the seasonal methods and multiple linear regression result in curves that try to approximate any repeated data pattern.

注意：在八种预测方法中，有几种的结果是直线：单边移动平均和单边指数平滑，双边移动平均和Holt’s双边指数平滑。只有周期性方法和多元线性回归到结果是曲线形式。

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Reports报告
Four settings in the Results tab affect reports: 在报告中三种设定结果：

Number Of Periods To Forecast 预测的周期数	Sets how many forecasted points appear in the report. 设定在报告中显示多少预测点
Confidence Interval 置信区间	Sets which confidence interval to calculate. If you select None, you cannot display a confidence interval on your report. 设定预测结果的计算置信区间，如果你没有选择，在预测结果图表中设定置信区间
Title 标题	Specifies the title that appears at the top of the report. 在报告的最上方设定标题
Report 报告	Selects whether to generate a report. 选择是否给出报告

If you select Report and click Run, CB Predictor generates one report for your entire forecast. The report appears either on a different worksheet of the current workbook or on a different workbook, depending on the selected settings in the Report Preferences dialog.

如果选择得到预测报告，CB Predictor会对预测结果生成一份报告。这份报告会在另外的sheet表或者新的excel工作表中生成，这可以在报告属性对话框中进行选择。

Unlike the pasted data and charts, the report can have information about one or all of the methods selected in the Method Gallery. For example, if you selected to include the forecasted values and charts, CB Predictor creates those using the best method. You can include statistics and parameters, however, for each method tried.

不像粘贴数据和图表，报告可以包括多种方法的信息。例如，你可以选择包含预测数值和图表，CB Predictor会得到最佳的方法。你可以包括统计方法和参数，以及其他的方法。

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Results table
Three settings in the Results tab affect the Results table:
在结果图表中可以设定三种预测结果：

Number Of Periods To Forecast 预测的周期数	Sets how many forecasted points appear in the report. 设定在报告中显示多少预测点
Confidence Interval 置信区间	Sets which confidence interval to calculate. If you select None, you cannot display a confidence interval on your report. 设定预测结果的计算置信区间，如果你没有选择，在预测结果图表中设定置信区间
Results Table 结果图表	Selects whether to generate a Results table. 选择是否给出结果图表

If you select Results Table and click Run, CB Predictor generates one Results table for all the series. The Results table appears either on a different worksheet or on a different workbook, depending on the selected settings in the Results Table Preferences dialog.
如果你选择结果图表， CB Predictor会生成一个包含所有系列结果的图表。结果图表会在另外的sheet表或者新的excel工作表中生成，这可以在结果图表属性对话框中进行选择。

Even though CB Predictor tried all the methods you selected in the Method Gallery, it generates the Results table using the best method, unless you overrode the best method. In that case, the program generates the result values using the overriding method.
CB Predictor可以根据你在方法图表中的选择尝试所有的预测方法，但是一般情况它会选择最佳的方法，除非你不选择这个方法。一般情况，系统默认的是使用覆盖的方法得到预测值。


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Methods table方法图表

Only one setting in the Results tab affects the Methods table: the Methods Table setting, which selects whether to generate it.
只有一个结果图表设置会影响的方法表：方法表的设置，选择是否生成它。

If you select Methods Table and click Run, CB Predictor generates one Methods table for your entire forecast. The Methods table appears either on a different worksheet or on a different workbook, depending on the selected settings in the Methods Table Preferences dialog.
如果选择方法图表，CB Predictor会对预测值生成一个方法图，方法图表会在另外的sheet表或者新的excel工作表中生成，这可以在方法图表属性对话框中进行选择。

The Methods table reports all the parameters and statistics for one or all the methods you selected in the Method Gallery. In the table, the methods appear in the order from the Method Gallery. The method used to generate the forecasted values, either the best method or the overriding method, is highlighted in bold, blue text. The method is likely to be different for each forecasted series.
方法图表报告中会生成一个或所有的方法的参数和统计方法。在图表中，按一定的顺序排列。也会生成最佳方法和覆盖方法的预测值，用高亮蓝色来标明。，

To compare the quality of the results of different time-series forecasting methods, check the errors: RMSE, MAD, and MAPE. For all of these, the smaller the better. So, you can compare the RMSE of one method to the RMSE of another method, and the smaller one should be ranked better. However, you cannot compare the RMSE of one method to the MAD or MAPE of another method. For more information, see “Time-series forecasting error measures”
为了比较不同时间序列预测的方法，可以检查它们的误差：RMSE,MAD和MAPE.误差越小的越好。所以你可以比较一种方法的RMSE和另一种方法的RMSE，误差越小的排在前面。但是不能以一种方法的RMSE和另一种方法的MAD或者MAPE进行比较。

To compare the quality of a regression, look for the following values:
对回归的比较，可以查看以下数值：

Table 3.3 Evaluating regression quality回归质量评价

Statistic 统计	Range 排列	Ideal value 关键值	Shows that: 含义
R2 or Adjusted R2 R2或调整 R2	0 to 1 0 到 1	Close to 1 趋向1	The linear regression accounts for almost all the variability in the dependent data. 线性回归方程中所有的自变量都是可用的
F probability F值	0 to 1 0 到 1	Less than 0.05 小于0.05	The quality of the overall regression (dependency of the dependent variable on the independent variables) is good. 整体回归质量（对因变量的自变量的依赖）是好的
t probability t 值	0 to 1 0 到 1	Less than 0.05 小于0.05	The quality of the coefficient of the regression equation is good. 回归方程中回归系数的质量是好的
Durbin-Watson Durbin-Watson值	0 to 4 0 到 4	2 2	No auto-correlation （ at lag 1) exists 不存在自相关
Theil’s U 泰尔U值	Greater than 0 小于0	Less than 1 小于 1	The quality of the results is better than guessing. 结果的质量比猜测的好

For more information on these statistics, see “Regression statistics”
更多的信息，可以查看“回归统计”


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Customizing reports and charts定制报告和图表

You can customize reports and charts by customizing the Excel templates that control how they look. The CB Predictor folder contains these two template files: Report and Charts.

To customize reports or charts:

您可以自定义报告，并通过自定义的Excel图表模板来进行设定。CB Predictor文件夹中包含这两个模板文件：报告和图表。

要自定义报告或图表：

1.In the CB Predictor folder, open the appropriate template file.

1、在CB Predictor文件夹中，打开模板文件

2.Make any style changes you want.

For example, in the report, you can change the font of the title, the width of the columns, or turn on grid lines. For the chart, you can change the chart type or the color of the upper confidence interval and fitted lines, change the background color, or change the angle of the horizontal axis labels.

2、设定需要的格式

例如，在报告中，您可以更改标题的字体，栏，或打开网格线的宽度。对于图表，您可以更改图表类型或置信区间的上线，并配备颜色，改变背景颜色，或更改标签的水平轴角。

3.Save and close the template file.

The next time CB Predictor generates a report or chart, it uses the modified template and appears with the new style.

3、
保存和关闭文件夹

保存或关闭文件夹后，再打开CB Predictor文件的时候，会生成新的模板。

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明天开始第四章{:8_306:}

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Chapter 4              
Examples案例
In this chapter在本章中
•Overview
•Inventory control
•Company finances
•Human resources
•概述
•库存控制
•公司财务
•人力资源

This chapter describes a detailed Excel model for Monica’s Bakery. The workbook has worksheets for sales data, operations, and cash flow. The Sales Data worksheet contains all the historical sales data that is available for forecasting. The Operations worksheet calculates the amount of different ingredients required to make different quantities of the three different breads. The Cash Flow worksheet calculates how much money the bakery has to spend on various capital projects. The Labor Costs worksheet estimates the increase in hourly wages to decide whether to invest in labor-saving equipment.
本章描述了莫尼卡的面包房详细Excel模型。该工作表包括销售数据，材料和现金流量表。销售数据表中包含所有的历史销售数据，用于预测可用。材料工作表计算所需的利用三种不同的材料不同数量的不同成分含量。现金流量表计算出多少钱，面包房已动用各种资本项目。对劳动力成本估计，每小时工资增加，以决定是否投资于节省劳力的设备。

Examples show to use this type of information to appropriately stock bread ingredients, plan for major purchases such as constructing a silo or buying a delivery van, and estimate the value of the business.
案例表明面包原料的存储量，计划和主要开支比如油，或者是否需要购买一辆汽车，从而来制定采购计划，确定企业的价值。

Overview概述

Monica’s Bakery is a rapidly growing bakery in Albuquerque, New Mexico. It opened in March of 2000, and Monica has kept careful records (in an Excel workbook) of the sales of her three main products: French bread, Italian bread, and pizza. With these records, she can better predict her sales, control her inventory, market her products, and make strategic, long-term decisions. To see Monica’s workbook, in the CB Predictor Examples folder, open Bakery.xls. By default, the file is stored in this folder: C:\Program Files\Decisioneering\Crystal Ball 7\Examples\CB Predictor Examples.
These numbers are ready to forecast. The following examples track Monica's decision-making processes as she works through both short-term and long-term decisions.
莫尼卡的面包是在新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基迅速增长的面包店。它设立于2000年3月，莫妮卡一直仔细记录（在Excel工作簿）她的三个主要产品的销售：法国面包，意大利面包，和比萨饼。有了这些记录，她可以更好地预测她的销售，库存控制她，她的产品市场，并作出战略性，长远的决策。要查看在CB预估的例子文件夹莫尼卡的工作簿，打开Bakery.xls。默认情况下，该文件存储在此文件夹：C:\Program Files\Decisioneering\Crystal Ball 7\Examples\CB Predictor Examples。
    这些数字已经准备好预测。下面的例子是莫尼卡的决策过程，她通过短期数据来做出短期和长期的决定。


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