【连载】CB Predictor操作手册(Crystal Ball Predictor 水晶球预测)

漂在生活

mark too.

lanj

Selecting results选择结果


-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

CB Predictor has five ways you can output your results:
CB Predictor 有五种结果输出的方法：

Paste Forecast 粘贴预测	Pastes the forecasted values to the end of your historical data. 将预测值粘贴到历史数据的最后面。
Charts 图表	Graphs historical, fitted, and forecasted data values, and a confidence interval. 将历史数据、历史最佳值、预测值和置信区间用图表表示出来。
Report 报告	Organizes and displays summary information, forecast values and a confidence interval, charts, and method information for any or all of your data series. 将数据的预测值、概要信息、置信区间、图表和方法形成报告。
Results Table 结果列表	Creates a table with all the forecasted values, fitted data, and a confidence interval. 将历史数据、历史最佳值、预测值和置信区间用结果列表表示出来。
Method Table 方法列表	Creates a table listing all the methods tried, the error values and statistics for each, and the parameters for each. 将所有的方法的误差值、统计值和参数用表格列出来。

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

Paste Forecast and Charts are the most common results. The other settings provide more detailed output that includes information you might use for presentations or to investigate various forecasting methods.
粘贴预测和图表预测是最通常的表示结果，其他的方法提供详细的输出结果，包括你可以使用的用来预测和报告的各种方法。

This tutorial produces more detailed output. To continue with the tutorial:
这个案例会得出许多详细的结果。
12.Under Step 7, forecast the monthly usage for the next year by entering 12 in the field.
12、在第七步的基础上，在表格中输入需要预测的明年12个月的天然气使用量。

13.Select the Paste, Report, and Methods Table result settings.
13、选择粘贴、报告和方法列表的输出结果。

14.In the Title field, type “Toledo Gas Usage Forecast.”
Now, the dialog looks like Figure 1.13 on page 21
.14、输入标题。

15.Click Preferences
15.点击参数

The Preferences dialog appears as shown in Figure 1.14.
图1.14显示了参数设定对话框


-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

Notice that Paste Forecasts... is checked. This prepares forecasted independent variable data for use as assumptions in Crystal Ball risk analysis simulations.
注意粘贴预测中，因变量预测的数据是为了之后用水晶球进行分析，形成模型。

16.Select the Report tab.
16、选择报告
The Report preferences appear.
结果参数表会显示出来：

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

17.Under Methods, select Three Best from the list and unselect the Parms (Parameters) setting.
This removes the method parameters from the report.
17、在方法列表中，选择三个最好的列表，不要选择设置参数。

18.Click OK.
The Results tab reappears.
18、点击ok。结果显示出来

19.Click Preview.
The Preview Forecast dialog appears.
19、点击Preview。预测结果预览对话框显示出来。

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

漂在生活

再一次mark...

lanj

Previewing results对结果进行预览

Before you output results to your spreadsheet, you can preview the forecasted values and the best method selected with the Preview Forecast dialog.
在将结果输出在电子表各前，可以对预测值和最佳方法在Preview Forecast对话框中进行评估。

In the Preview Forecast dialog, you can preview the forecasted values for all the data series and all the methods run for each. After viewing the forecast values for each method, you can also override the selected method to use for the final forecasted values.
在Preview Forecast对话框中，你可以对所有方法和数据得出的预测值进行评估，在查看不同方法得到预测值后，可以得到最后的预测值。

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

To continue with your tutorial:继续会案例进行操作：

20.Select Average Temperature from the Series list in the upper left corner of the Preview Forecast dialog.
20、选择平均温度查看预测值情况

Forecasted values appear for Average Temperature. Seasonal Additive is identified as the best-fitting method as in Figure 1.17.
在图1.17中选择最适合的预测方法后，平均气温的预测值显示出来

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

21.Select Single Exponential Smoothing from the Method list.
The preview changes to show the forecast using single exponential smoothing instead of the seasonal additive method.
21、选择单边指数平滑方法
用单边指数平滑代替周期性递增的显示方法对预测结果进行预览

22.Click Override Best.
22、点击Override Best选择最佳情况。

This actually changes the forecast to use single exponential smoothing instead of the seasonal additive method as shown in Figure 1.18.
使用单一的预测指数平滑，而不是周期性递增的方法，如图1.18。

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

Summary概述
CB Predictor’s primary job is to create forecasts based on your historical data. The program’s method selections appear in the Preview dialog. When you override the program’s selections, you should carefully analyze your results.
CB Predictor最初是用来在历史数据的基础上进行预测。在Preview对话框中对方法进行选择，当给你选择了其中一种方法时，需要对结果仔细的分析。

In this example, there were three independent variables that combined to forecast the dependent variable, Usage. In the tutorial, you overrode the Average Temperature reading to use the method Single Exponential Smoothing instead of Seasonal Additive. What was the effect?
在这个案例中，有三个自变量会对因变量进行影响。在案例中平均温度因素选择单边指数平滑而不是季节附加，会有什么影响呢？

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

Overriding the Average Temperature had a noticeable effect on the forecast (but not the fit) of the Usage variable.
平均温度对燃气的使用情况在预测表中有着明显的预测作用（但并不十分适合）。

23.Click Run.
23、点击Run
CB Predictor creates:

•The results pasted at the end of your historical data
在历史数据后面粘贴预测值。

•On a separate worksheet of your workbook, a report listing all the details of the time-series forecasts of each independent variable and the multiple linear regression of the dependent variable
在工作表中生成一个单独的sheet表，对时间序列预测的每个自变量和与因变量之间的多元线性回归生成详细的报告。

•On a separate worksheet of your workbook, a Methods Table page as PivotTables) listing all the time-series forecasting methods tried, their parameters, the error measures and statistics for each, and the regression parameters and statistics
在工作表中生成一个单独的sheet表，对时间序列预测的各种方法、参数和度量的偏差的统计数据、回归参数和统计数据生成一个方法列表。

24.Look at the results pasted below the historical data as shown in Figure 1.20.
24、图1.20中的历史数据后面粘贴的是预测的结果。
The pane was frozen beneath the column headers so they wouild appear in this figure.
被冻结的窗格下方的列标题显示了预测的数据

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

Notice that the independent variables have been defined as Crystal Ball assumptions with normal distributions.
注意：自变量已经用水晶球假设的方法进行了定义，是正态分布。

25.Activate the Report worksheet and scroll to the section on the Average Temperature variable as shown in Figure 1.21.
25、如图生成报告，并查看平均温度的因素报告部分。

Notice the indication that the method used was an override of the best method.
注意：用覆盖的方法是最佳的方法。

26.Activate the Methods Table worksheet.
26、生成方法列表电子表。

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

27.Next to the Series button, select Average Temperature.
27、在序列按钮中，选择平均温度。

The table changes to show the parameters and statistics for each method of the Average Temperature forecast as shown in Figure 1.23.
在图1.23中就显示了平均温度的各种方法得到的相关参数和统计方法。

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

28.Click the Series button and drag it to the left of the Methods button.
28、点击序列按钮，并将其拖动到方法列表的左边。

The method table expands to include all the data series. When you drop the Series button next to the Methods button, the list of methods repeats for each series.
方法列表包括了所有的数据序列，当你把系列按钮拖动到方法列表左边后，方法列表显示的是每个序列的方法清单。

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载