【连载】CB Predictor操作手册(Crystal Ball Predictor 水晶球预测)

漂在生活

哈哈，跨年度。。。

lanj

Chapter 5              
Using CB Predictor with Crystal Ball
在Crystal Ball 中使用CB Predictor

In this chapter 在本章中
• Using CB Predictor with Crystal Ball
• Monica’s Bakery example revisited
•在Crystal Ball 中使用CB Predictor
•莫尼卡面包房的案例

This chapter describes how to run Crystal Ball with CB Predictor to add risk analysis to your forecast.
It also gives a detailed example of a spreadsheet where you might want to use both forecasting and simulation.
本章介绍如何在Crystal Ball 中使用CB Predictor，并增加了风险分析的预测。
它也给出了一个电子表格的详细例子，你可能要同时使用预测和模拟。



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译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

Using CB Predictor with Crystal Ball
在Crystal Ball 中使用CB Predictor

“It is far better to foresee even with uncertainty than not to foresee at all.”- Henri Poincaré in Foundations Of Science
“比起无法预测，不确定的预测也是十分有效的。” -  Henri Poincaré in Foundations Of Science

If you are a sales manager, you might be asked to predict future sales to let the manufacturing organization produce sufficient quantities of product to meet demand. However, as shown by the confidence interval around your forecasted data, there is usually a large degree of uncertainty associated with the true future values. How do you account for the uncertainty?
如果你是一个销售经理，你需要对未来的销售额进行预测，从而来确定公司需要生产多少的产品满足需求。然而，就像预测的数据有个置信区间，所以和未来的真实情况，预测值有一个较大的不确定性。那要怎样计算这样的不确定性呢？

If you have Decisioneering’s Crystal Ball along with CB Predictor, you can define the forecasted values as assumptions, create a Crystal Ball forecast that represents the entire range of possible outcomes for the forecasted sales, and run a simulation to analyze the effects of the uncertainty. Crystal Ball will generate a forecast chart showing the total amount of product that manufacturing must produce, to meet demand within a specific certainty. You can use the mean of the Crystal Ball forecast or perhaps give manufacturing a range and say that you are 90% certain that the actual number falls in that range. This is the power that combining the two products gives you.
如果CB Predictor有Decisioneering’s Crystal Ball文件夹，可以用假设来定义预测值，创建一个水晶球预测，表示对销售的预测可能出现的结果的整个范围，并运行仿真分析不确定性的影响。

To use CB Predictor and Crystal Ball together, you must understand how to:
•Set CB Predictor to create Crystal Ball assumptions
•Follow a forecast with a simulation
使用CB Predictor和Crystalball，你必须了解：
        设置CB Predictor来创建一个水晶球预测
        用模拟的方法来进行预测分析

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译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

Automatically generating Crystal Ball assumptions
用Crystal Ball自动进行假设

Integrating CB Predictor and Crystal Ball is as easy as choosing a setting that automatically generates forecasted values as Crystal Ball assumptions. To make this setting:
集合CB Predictor和Crystalball非常简单，选择设定自动生成Crystalball预测值。

1.On the Results tab, click Preferences.
The Preferences dialog appears.
   1、在结果图表中，选择属性

2.Click the Paste tab.
2、点击粘贴图表

3.Choose the Paste Forecasts As Crystal Ball Assumptions setting.
3、Crystalball假设设置时选择粘贴预测结果

4、        Click OK.
4、点击OK

5.Make sure you selected the Paste Forecasts At Cell result.
5、确定在单元格上粘贴预测结果

6.Run your forecast.
6、运行预测

As long as you have Crystal Ball loaded, this setting creates Crystal Ball assumptions as it pastes the forecasted values to your spreadsheet.
根据设定，Crystalball预测会见预测值粘贴在工作表中。

The pasted values have a style based on the Style Of Pasted Results settings (bold, by default). The cell color and pattern changes to match the assumption cell preferences set in Crystal Ball under Define > Cell Preferences (green, by default).
粘贴值会根绝粘贴结果设置的规范来粘贴。单元格的颜色和格式可以在单元格属性中进行设置。


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译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

漂在生活

我先插队……

lanj

还有几页内容，打算31日连载结束。当作是送给各位的2010年新年礼物{:8_307:}

lanj

我先插队……
漂在生活 发表于 2009-12-29 09:15

    我都快连载结束了，有啥奖励没？{:8_306:}

漂在生活

回复 127# lanj


    有，回头我们私下说。。。{:9_328:}

lanj

Time-series forecast method results时间序列预测的结果

For data series forecasted using time-series methods, CB Predictor creates the assumptions as normal distributions with:
•A mean equal to the forecasted value in the cell
•For time-series forecasted data, a standard deviation calculated using the RMSE
对于使用时间序列方法预测的数据序列，CB Predictor会得到一个正态分布的假设：
        单元格中是预测值的平均值
        时间序列预测数据，会使用RMSE的方法计算标准偏差。

Multiple linear regression results多元线性回归预测的结果

For multiple linear regression, CB Predictor creates assumptions for the independent variable forecast values only. This is because the independent variable values are simple value cells, but the dependent variable values are formula cells that are a function of the independent variables.
多元线性回归，CB Predictor只得到自变量的预测假设值。这是因为自变量的值是个简单的数值，而因变量的值是根据自变量影响得到一个公式值。

If you want to see the variability of the dependent variable, you can select the pasted formula cells and define them as Crystal Ball forecast cells (by selecting Define > Define Forecast). More likely, you might want to create one formula cell that represents the sum of the data in the dependent variable cells and define that formula cell as a Crystal Ball forecast.
如果你希望查看因变量的值，你可以设置需要选择粘贴公式。更多情况，你可能希望用Crystalball预测中的自变量单元格的数值和来创建一个公式。



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译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

Monica’s Bakery example revisited莫妮卡面包房的案例

Monica decides to incorporate uncertainty into her cash flow analysis. For more information on this example, see “Company finances”
莫妮卡决定将不确定性加入到现金流分析中，更多信息可以查看案例。

She had already forecasted her revenue for the next few months, which indicated that she could start construction on her silo in July, but should probably wait to buy her delivery van in August. She has already committed to the silo construction. However, she realizes that her forecasts are point estimates, and she wants to be at least 90% sure that she won’t run out of cash and won’t be able to meet payroll or other critical bills.
她经常需要预测她在以后几个月的库存情况，这可以帮助她确定7月份增加油的库存，8月份购买新的面包车。她已经对库存情况进行了认可，然而，她意识到她的预测是一个固定的点估计，她希望至少90％的把握，以确保她将不会出现资金短缺，将无法支付工资或其他严重的情况。

To get a picture of the uncertainty in the bakery’s cash flow:
在图表中显示面包房现金流的不确定性

1.In Crystal Ball, select Run > Run Preferences.
The Crystal Ball Run Preferences dialog appears.
   1、在Crystalball中，选择run>run preferences

2.Set the following settings:
•Run 500 trials
•Use Latin Hypercube sampling
•Use an initial seed value of 999
•Use a sample size of 500
   2、进行以下设置:
          运行500次
          使用Latin Hypercube sampling
          使用999的初始值
          选择案例大小有500

3.Click OK.
3、点击OK

4、        Open the Bakery.xls workbook.
4、打开工作表

By default, the file is stored in this folder: C:\Program Files\Decisioneering\Crystal Ball 7\Examples\CB Predictor Examples.
You can also find this example by selecting Help > Crystal Ball> Crystal Ball Examples and selecting the file from the Examples Guide.
默认的情况，文件的存放地址是：C:\Program Files\Decisioneering\Crystal Ball 7\Examples\CB Predictor Examples.

你也可以在帮助里面找到这个案例: Help > Crystal Ball> Crystal Ball Examples and selecting the file from the Examples Guide.

5.Click the Cash Flow tab.
The Cash Flow worksheet appears.
5、点击现金流量表

6.Select one cell in the Historical Revenue By Month PivotTable at the bottom of the worksheet.
6、在工作表中的每月数据表中选择一个历史库存的单元格

7.Start CB Predictor.
CB Predictor’s Intelligent Input automatically selects all the PivotTable data.

7、开始CB Predictor
CB Predictor会自动选择数据图中的所有数据

8.Make sure:
•The cell range is selected correctly, data in rows, and no dates or headers (Steps 1 and 2)
•The time periods are in months with a seasonality of 12 months (Step 4)
•Turn off regression (Step 5)
•All time-series methods are selected (Step 6)
•The number of periods to forecast is 3 (Step 7)
•The only result selected is Paste Forecast at $AQ$35 (Step 9)
•In the Preferences dialog, under the Paste tab, the Paste Forecasts As Crystal Ball Assumptions setting is checked (Step 9)
    8、确定
            选择正确的单元格，不包括日期和标题
            时间周期设置为以12个月为标准的月度周期
            选择回归分析
            选择使用所有的时间预测方法
            选择预测的时间周期为3个月
            选择将结果粘贴在AQ35单元格上
            在粘贴标签中，在属性对话框中，设置水晶球的假设预测粘贴检查

9.Click Run.
The results paste at the bottom of the PivotTable as Crystal Ball assumptions.
    9、点运行

10.Define cells E27:G27 as forecasts for Month 1, Month 2, and Month 3, respectively, by selecting each cell and selecting Define > Define Forecast.
10、将E27:G27定义为预测1个月，2个月，3个月

11.Run a simulation of 500 trials.
For more information on running a Crystal Ball simulation, see your Crystal Ball User Manual.
Monica can now look at the net cash left at the end of each month as a forecast, shown in Figure 5.1.
11、多模型进行500次的模拟
    运行水晶球模型的更多信息，可以查看Crystal Ball User Manual.



To be certain that the bakery will not drop below the cash reserve at the end of any month, she slides the left certainty grabber to $20,000.
要确定该面包店项目将不得低于在任何月底的现金储备，她幻灯片左侧确定性采集卡至20,000元。

Based on the probability of dropping below the reserve threshold, she decides to delay buying the van until September.
基于库存下降的可能性，她决定推迟到9月份购买的车。

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译者权归“思步网（www.step365.com）”及“lanj（西北偏北）”共同所有，未经许可，请勿转载

lanj

正式宣布，连载结束了～！！（其实还有附录，有点懒还没翻译，以后如果翻译了再贴上来）{:8_307:}

最后谢谢大家对帖子的关注，如有哪些地方翻译的不到位的，请大家多多包涵啊～！{:8_307:}

祝大家元旦快乐～！

漂在生活

(hua:感谢楼主的辛苦付出，tks.

新年快乐，恭喜发财！(jinbi:

2010worksnow

等待后面的内容,翻译水平很高!

漂在生活

呵呵，同楼上一样期待！

syberman

在哪里能搞一个水晶球的软件呀，只看你的翻译没见软件，没有感觉呀！